The last couple of weeks have shaken up the top of the NFL standings. The New England Patriots are still humming along, undefeated at 9-0 (8-1 ATS), but the Indianapolis Colts have dropped two in a row to fall even with the Pittsburgh Steelers at 7-2.

If you can’t stand the thought of eating chalk on the Super Bowl futures market, then you need to figure out which team has the best chance to knock off the Patriots. We’re going to leave 8-1 Dallas and Green Bay out of the equation, since they play in the lesser NFC.

The Colts came very close to beating New England in Week 9, and that was without LT Tony Ugoh and WR Marvin Harrison, but even more offensive players (plus DL Dwight Freeney) have been hurt since then. That might leave it up to Pittsburgh’s No. 2-ranked defense to upset New England for the AFC championship. It could happen.

Never before have two undefeated teams met this late in an NFL season. Call it Super Bowl 41 1/2. Admit it, you’ve been waiting for this game since Week 1. Whichever team wins Sunday’s epic showdown between the Colts (7-0) and Patriots (8-0) will be anointed the king of the NFL, the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl.

By beating the Patriots, the Colts can prove they’re still the boss. The winner of this game will be the last unbeaten team, with a chance for a perfect season. The game also has huge implications for the playoffs because the winner will have a leg up on securing home-field advantage. How important is that? All three times these teams have met in the playoffs, the home team has won.

Those NFL dogs just keep barking: 5-8 SU and 7-6 on Sunday, stretching their record on the season to 54-43-5 ATS (55.67 percent).

Some dogs barked more loudly than others. Technically, the Bears (+5.5) were the biggest upset of the week, beating the Eagles 19-16 at the Linc on an improbable 97-yard drive for a touchdown, all in the last two minutes. But we’ve seen the 2-4 Eagles pull the el foldo on more than one occasion.

The bigger surprise saw Denver (+4) beat Pittsburgh 31-28 at Invesco Field. The Broncos brought some extra horseshoes; despite being outplayed, they got the duke on the strength of Tim Crowder’s 50-yard fumble recovery and Jason Elam’s last-second field goal from 49 yards out.

The Dolphins nearly topped all those surprises. No, they didn’t come close to beating New England (-15.5), but they did score 21 points in the fourth to nearly complete the matador cover. Final score: Miami 49, NE 28.

Losing to the New England Patriots hasn’t taken too much starch out of the Dallas Cowboys. They’re still getting pretty short Super Bowl odds at 15-2; only New England (even) and the Indianapolis Colts (4-1) are in better shape heading into Week 7.

If the Cowboys and Patriots meet again at the Super Bowl, things will be a little different by then. For one, Tank Johnson will be there. The former Chicago Bears defensive tackle signed with Dallas last month and should be eligible to return from his league suspension for Week 10’s matchup against the Giants.

Then there’s wide receiver Terry Glenn. He remains out of commission following last month’s knee surgery, but expects to be back before the season is over. Glenn was a close No. 2 to Terrell Owens for Dallas last year with 26.6 DPAR; adding him and Johnson to this lineup would give the Cowboys a premium comeback opportunity against the Pats.

It’s hard to feel sorry for an NFL quarterback. But I still feel bad for both Eli Manning and Chad Pennington – especially Pennington. All he’s done is post a 90.1 career passer rating, and 105.8 this season. But the Jets’ run game is stalled, the defense is the worst in the league, and they’re facing a Giants’ team (-3.5) that has pulled itself out of the mire and won two in a row. As for Manning, at least he got a helping hand in the form of RB Derrick Ward, who had better at least split carries when Brandon Jacobs returns.

I don’t feel sorry for Vince Young. Right now, he’s a good QB with a good head on his shoulders, but he’s starting to get the star treatment after some high-profile wins on TV. Joey Harrington has the better numbers. Really. Watch out for the Falcons as 8.5-point road dogs.

How ‘bout them Cowboys?

So Tony Romo had a bad night at the office. Sure, you could look at the negatives: five interceptions, a lost fumble and a 49.9 passer rating. But how about the positives? How about two TD passes and 309 yards through the air? How about keeping it together and leading Dallas to two scoring drives in the dying stages? Those things will keep happening; five-pick performances will not.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys improved from 10th to sixth in the NFL in defensive efficiency, holding the Bills’ offense to a field goal. And they did it without CB Anthony Henry, who missed the game with a high ankle sprain.

Monday night also presented Nick Folk to the world. The Dallas coverage units aren’t too good, but Folk is now 10-for-11 on field goals this season. This is a pretty good team to be getting 6.5 points at home, even against the mighty New England Patriots.

The NFL lines are getting tighter than a drum. But there are a few games on the Week 6 schedule that are unlike anything we’ve seen yet this season. Those are the matchups where the statistics are less likely to stick.

For example, the game we’ve all been waiting for: New England at Dallas. This will be the first real test for the Patriots, yet they’ve already climbed from 5-point favorites at the open to 6.5 points. I suppose it boils down to whether you believe in Tony Romo’s first four games, or his fifth against Buffalo.

I’m also looking at Miami getting five points against Cleveland. These two teams are performing at almost exactly the same level after five weeks, but the Browns have squeezed two wins out of it, while the Fish are 0-5. I’ll “buy low” on the Dolphins here; Cleo Lemon handing off to Ronnie Brown should cash in against defense-poor Cleveland.

Some people are more easily surprised than others. If you studied the Green Bay Packers during the offseason, and their first three opponents (the Eagles, Giants and Chargers), you might not be surprised that they’re 3-0 SU and ATS. OK, beating the Giants couldn’t have been a surprise. But both the Eagles and Chargers? As they say, hindsight is 20/20.

How about the New Orleans Saints at 0-3 SU and ATS? Again, perfectly logical in retrospect with that lousy defense and shaky offensive line. Plus, having to play the Colts and Bucs on the road before hosting the Titans is no simple task. The big surprise is how poorly they’ve performed: three straight blowouts of at least 17 points.

Here’s the biggest shocker of them all: the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes, they’re 2-1 SU, but at 1-2 ATS they’re not playing nearly as well as last year. Whatever happened to running and defense?

Check out the tiny road favorites on the Week 4 slate. Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers are 3-0. But they’re only laying 2.5 points on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles are also expected at press time to be 2.5-point faves at the New York Giants.

The Vikings are not a very good football team: They just lost to the Chiefs, of all teams. But the Giants might be even worse. It took a botched drive from Washington at the goal line to hand New York its first win of the season, while the Eagles simply crushed Detroit.

Much tougher to call at –2.5 on the road are the Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco. Seattle barely survived a back-and-forth affair last week against the Bengals, and still failed to cover. The Niners are already suffering injuries, but they’ve still got a pretty good defense, unlike Cincinnati.