Super Bowl

Well, well, what do we have here? The New England Patriots are 3-1 favorites on the Super Bowl XLIII futures market, just weeks after losing Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

So the Pats are carrying heavy Super Bowl chalk for the second year in a row. The Giants proved what a lousy investment it can be to bet on the favorite; as brilliantly as New England played for most of the 2007 campaign, it’s a difficult journey to the championship, and the Pats had their share of “luck” to go 18-0.

However, let’s credit the NFL betting public (which is getting better informed all the time – then again, so are the sharps) for not putting too much weight in how the Patriots happened to finish the season 18-1. New England could just as easily have lost to the Giants in Week 17 and beaten them in New Orleans. But whither free agent Randy Moss in 2008?

It’s all over but the recriminations. The New England Patriots failed to complete their perfect season, losing 17-14 to the New York Giants on a last-minute touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Plaxico Burress.

It looks like the books have once again taken an absolute bath on the Patriots, although this time it was in a losing effort. The Giants were bet early and often; they were 12-point underdogs (+315 on the moneyline) at the close. Betting reports suggest 85 percent of the action was on New York. A relatively moderate 57 percent of the betting public showed a preference for the over on the total of 54.5 points, giving back some of those monster earnings.

On the props market, Manning paid out at 7-2 as the Super Bowl MVP. The Giants (+120) scored first with a field goal (+140) by Lawrence Tynes. And Kobe Bryant (+0.5) easily outscored the Patriots with 30 points against the Wizards.

This weekend the big shots of American advertising will go head to head in the marketing battle to see who will be the King (or Queen) of commercials. Game day will be the biggest advertising event of the year.

According to Fox, the average cost for a 30 second spot during this year’s game is $2.7 million and with 93 million viewers of the Super Bowl last year, even more are expected to watch this year.

Companies such as General Motors, Anheuser-Busch and Pepsi are just a few that are going to be spending their millions to get their marketing message to this massive audience.

Lou D’ermillo, senior vice president of communications at Fox Sports said last week that Fox only had one available spot left for the game and that the Super Bowl was 90% sold out by the first week in November.

So what is it exactly that makes a Super Bowl spot such a great investment?

“It’s all about value,” said Michael Pavone, president of the brand consulting firm Pavone, the group responsible for spotbowl.com, a Web site that analyzes Super Bowl advertising.

Over the years Super Bowl commercials have become a cultural phenomena, and according to Pavone, more than half the audience is tuning in just to see the ads.

“The Super Bowl is a good spend because you get the chance to create a lot of buzz a head of the game.”

The Super Bowl props market is absolutely overflowing with football goodness. There are wagers available for nearly every individual player of consequence; the ones pitting Eli Manning’s production against Tom Brady’s are twice as tasty.

Brady is the favorite in all six of his props against Manning, including most pass completions (-5.5) and most passing yards (-65.5, -135). It’s important to look at the Super Bowl matchup itself before taking the hammer to that piggy bank. If it looks anything like Week 17, Brady will attempt significantly more passes against the softer New York Giants secondary.

Otherwise, Manning has plenty of value in the touchdown department. His learning curve appears to have taken him through what started off as an inconsistent 2007 campaign. Appearances can be deceiving, but Manning has eight TD throws (four against the New England Patriots) and one interception in his last four games; Brady has 10 TD passes (two against the Giants) and five picks.