Well, well, what do we have here? The New England Patriots are 3-1 favorites on the Super Bowl XLIII futures market, just weeks after losing Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.
So the Pats are carrying heavy Super Bowl chalk for the second year in a row. The Giants proved what a lousy investment it can be to bet on the favorite; as brilliantly as New England played for most of the 2007 campaign, it’s a difficult journey to the championship, and the Pats had their share of “luck” to go 18-0.
However, let’s credit the NFL betting public (which is getting better informed all the time – then again, so are the sharps) for not putting too much weight in how the Patriots happened to finish the season 18-1. New England could just as easily have lost to the Giants in Week 17 and beaten them in New Orleans. But whither free agent Randy Moss in 2008?
It’s all over but the recriminations. The New England Patriots failed to complete their perfect season, losing 17-14 to the New York Giants on a last-minute touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Plaxico Burress.
It looks like the books have once again taken an absolute bath on the Patriots, although this time it was in a losing effort. The Giants were bet early and often; they were 12-point underdogs (+315 on the moneyline) at the close. Betting reports suggest 85 percent of the action was on New York. A relatively moderate 57 percent of the betting public showed a preference for the over on the total of 54.5 points, giving back some of those monster earnings.
On the props market, Manning paid out at 7-2 as the Super Bowl MVP. The Giants (+120) scored first with a field goal (+140) by Lawrence Tynes. And Kobe Bryant (+0.5) easily outscored the Patriots with 30 points against the Wizards.
This weekend the big shots of American advertising will go head to head in the marketing battle to see who will be the King (or Queen) of commercials. Game day will be the biggest advertising event of the year.
According to Fox, the average cost for a 30 second spot during this year’s game is $2.7 million and with 93 million viewers of the Super Bowl last year, even more are expected to watch this year.
Companies such as General Motors, Anheuser-Busch and Pepsi are just a few that are going to be spending their millions to get their marketing message to this massive audience.
Lou D’ermillo, senior vice president of communications at Fox Sports said last week that Fox only had one available spot left for the game and that the Super Bowl was 90% sold out by the first week in November.
So what is it exactly that makes a Super Bowl spot such a great investment?
“It’s all about value,” said Michael Pavone, president of the brand consulting firm Pavone, the group responsible for spotbowl.com, a Web site that analyzes Super Bowl advertising.
Over the years Super Bowl commercials have become a cultural phenomena, and according to Pavone, more than half the audience is tuning in just to see the ads.
“The Super Bowl is a good spend because you get the chance to create a lot of buzz a head of the game.”
The Super Bowl props market is absolutely overflowing with football goodness. There are wagers available for nearly every individual player of consequence; the ones pitting Eli Manning’s production against Tom Brady’s are twice as tasty.
Brady is the favorite in all six of his props against Manning, including most pass completions (-5.5) and most passing yards (-65.5, -135). It’s important to look at the Super Bowl matchup itself before taking the hammer to that piggy bank. If it looks anything like Week 17, Brady will attempt significantly more passes against the softer New York Giants secondary.
Otherwise, Manning has plenty of value in the touchdown department. His learning curve appears to have taken him through what started off as an inconsistent 2007 campaign. Appearances can be deceiving, but Manning has eight TD throws (four against the New England Patriots) and one interception in his last four games; Brady has 10 TD passes (two against the Giants) and five picks.
It’s been quite a season for the New England Patriots, hasn’t it? A perfect season, a handful of records and now QB Tom Brady has been chosen as the NFL’s Most Valuable Player, as voted by the Associated Press.
Brady picked up 49 of the 50 votes from a nationwide media panel that regularly covers the NFL. The only other vote went to Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre..
In leading the Patriots to the NFL’s first undefeated regular season in 35 years, Brady was amazingly focused and it was clear that he had only one goal in mind: to win. He led the NFL with a passer rating of 117.2, a completion percentage of 68.9 and 4,806 yards, while also setting a league record with 50 touchdown passes.
This makes Brady the first Patriot to earn the MVP award. San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson won the award last year.
BTW, the New England Patriots are the heavy, heavy favorites to win the 2008 Super Bowl by 1/2 odds.
The NFL never ceases to amaze. We saw some amazing things happen both on and off the field in 2007. Some of what we saw, we wish we hadn’t. The Top 10 list of the league’s biggest stories of the year proves that truth is stranger than fiction.
Michael Vick arrested and jailed on dogfighting charges, suspended by NFL New England Patriots go 16-0 during 2007 regular season Sean Taylor shot at his home by intruder, dies at hospital Marquise Hill dies in jet-ski accident Indianapolis Colts beat Chicago Bears at Super Bowl XLI Bobby Petrino signs with Atlanta Falcons, leaves for Arkansas after 13 games Bill Parcells retires for third time, comes back as top exec for 1-15 Dolphins Tom Brady (50 TD passes) and Randy Moss (23 TD catches) set league records Brett Favre breaks Dan Marino’s career records for TDs and yards passing Pac-Man Jones suspended for entire season following strip-club riot
The last couple of weeks have shaken up the top of the NFL standings. The New England Patriots are still humming along, undefeated at 9-0 (8-1 ATS), but the Indianapolis Colts have dropped two in a row to fall even with the Pittsburgh Steelers at 7-2.
If you can’t stand the thought of eating chalk on the Super Bowl futures market, then you need to figure out which team has the best chance to knock off the Patriots. We’re going to leave 8-1 Dallas and Green Bay out of the equation, since they play in the lesser NFC.
The Colts came very close to beating New England in Week 9, and that was without LT Tony Ugoh and WR Marvin Harrison, but even more offensive players (plus DL Dwight Freeney) have been hurt since then. That might leave it up to Pittsburgh’s No. 2-ranked defense to upset New England for the AFC championship. It could happen.
Never before have two undefeated teams met this late in an NFL season. Call it Super Bowl 41 1/2. Admit it, you’ve been waiting for this game since Week 1. Whichever team wins Sunday’s epic showdown between the Colts (7-0) and Patriots (8-0) will be anointed the king of the NFL, the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl. By beating the Patriots, the Colts can prove they’re still the boss. The winner of this game will be the last unbeaten team, with a chance for a perfect season. The game also has huge implications for the playoffs because the winner will have a leg up on securing home-field advantage. How important is that? All three times these teams have met in the playoffs, the home team has won.